Tree

» Community Sites

• Each site will form a team
  
• Creates logo and a team name
  
• Will be given a "Salary Cap"
  

» Player Pool

• 64 Players
  
• Players from US, EU, and KR
  
• Well known and accomplished players
  

» Community Votes

• Community votes on the Battle.net website placing a virtual "value" on each player
  

» Draft

• Captains will "buy" players based on community votes
  
• Limited to predetermined "salary" for the team
  
• Results in 8 total teams
  
• 8-10 players per team
  

» League A 4 teams per league Round Robin system of matches		» League B 4 teams per league Round Robin system of matches
» Matches Single elimination Best of 3		» Matches Single elimination Best of 3

» Finals

OA QB Rating: Through Week 4

In a previous post, I described my OA Quarterback rating.  
Before I  show you the results for week 4, below is a graph showing each player's OA rating vs. his team's average points scored.

Overall, the rating is a pretty good predictor of points scored.
Who are the outliers?  Glad you asked.

Jay Cutler and Shaun Hill each have a negative OA QB rating - despite the fact that their teams are number 8 and 5, respectively,  in average points scored.  (I should point out that I don't tease out defensive TDs).

OA QB Rating: Through Week 3

In a previous post, I described my OA Quarterback rating.  
Before I  show you the results for week 3, I wanted to show you another graph.  The scatter plot to the right shows the T/A differential plotted against the point differential (average by year) for every team since the 2000 season.  That graph shows precisely why Y/A is such an important stat.  The correlation with point differential (and, therefore, wins) is incredibly strong.

The Current QB Rating Formula Sucks

I did a little research this weekend.  I looked at the calculation for the current QB rating system and, you know what?  It kind of sucks. 

Explanation of the Formula

Here’s the formula – it’s based on 4 general categories.  The specific category for each part of the calculation is in the brackets:

Opponent Adjusted Quarterback Rating: 2008

In a previous post, I described my OA Quarterback rating.

Below are the results from 2008 (minimum 200 attempts).

OA Quarterback Ratings:  2008
 

Opponent Adjusted Quarterback Rating: Week 2

I recently put together a regression model to determine the factors that most drive the number of points a football team scores in any given game.  It's a work in progress, but the factors I looked at were:

• Yards per attempt (Y/A)
  
• Interception %
• Yards/Rush
• Average Y/A yielded by opponent
• Average points yielded by opponent
  

Of the variables above, Y/A was, by the far, the strongest - followed by interception percentage.  The other three were pretty close in importance.

Week 2 Analysis: Yards Per Attempt Continues to Predict Victory

I'm continuing with the theme that yards per attempt is among the most important stats in the NFL.  Last week, I checked the win/loss record for teams whose offense put up a higher yards per attempt than their defense yielded.

The results from week 1 indicated that about 71% of teams with favorable Y/A won the game.  This result was consistent with the results of the past several years.